Ryan O'Reilly vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 78 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Karlsson 51.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 119-84 in 203 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 80.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
119
-
84
(203 meetings)
119
84
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Last 10: O'Reilly 3-7 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
48
30
O'Reilly
Karlsson
78 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
41
26
O'Reilly
Karlsson
67 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
30
28
O'Reilly
Karlsson
58 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
51.8% (7,849)
+4.4%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
54.8% (1,048)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
44.2% (1,109)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Home
57.6% (10,762)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
O'Reilly
Karlsson
P1
55.6%
50.3%
P2
57.0%
51.3%
P3
55.1%
52.4%
OT
62.2%
44.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:45 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:01 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:23 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | William Karlsson |