Ryan O'Reilly vs William Karlsson
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.8% vs 55.3%). Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Karlsson 54.9% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 50.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 56.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
4
O'Reilly
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Karlsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
O'Reilly
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
55.3% (897)
+0.8%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
61.1% (113)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
50.8% (132)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Home
58.3% (408)
58.6% (560)
Away
53.6% (487)
52.2% (582)
By Period
O'Reilly
Karlsson
P1
57.7%
55.8%
P2
54.8%
55.6%
P3
55.2%
55.7%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 12:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:34 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | William Karlsson |