Ryan O'Reilly vs William Karlsson
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Last 10: O'Reilly 3-7 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
5
O'Reilly
Karlsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
56.3% (739)
-1.3%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
58.6% (181)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
47.2% (53)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Karlsson
Home
54.8% (759)
56.5% (462)
Away
53.0% (777)
56.0% (511)
By Period
O'Reilly
Karlsson
P1
55.3%
57.1%
P2
51.9%
55.2%
P3
54.2%
56.7%
OT
64.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:45 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:01 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:23 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |