Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 47.4% vs Carrick 53.7% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 67.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 64.9%
Neutral zone
Poehling 65.1%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Poehling
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Poehling
Carrick
Last 5: Poehling 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
0
Poehling
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Poehling
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Poehling
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (615)
54.9% (428)
-5.1%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
66.7% (3)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (202)
50.0% (50)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Poehling is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (279).
Poehling shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Poehling
Carrick
Home
47.2% (388)
58.2% (225)
Away
46.9% (441)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Poehling
Carrick
P1
53.4%
55.2%
P2
39.5%
52.8%
P3
48.9%
55.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
56.0%▲
47.5%
47.0%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 07:17 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |