Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Poehling wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 50.8% vs Carrick 53.7% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 54.0%
Defensive zone
Poehling 52.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.6%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Poehling
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Poehling
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
1
Poehling
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Poehling
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Poehling
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (622)
53.8% (654)
-1.2%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
0.0% (2)
+58.3%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (103)
63.9% (36)
-24.1%
On power play, Poehling has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Poehling is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Poehling shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Poehling
Carrick
Home
53.2% (393)
50.0% (328)
Away
48.3% (344)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Poehling
Carrick
P1
50.9%
56.7%
P2
56.2%
51.1%
P3
46.1%
54.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:32 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:31 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:48 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |