Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs Strome 47.7% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 87.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 87.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 81.3%
81.3%
18.7%
Pavelski
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Strome
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Strome
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
47.8% (813)
+6.6%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
56.4% (133)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
32.7% (98)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Pavelski is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (159).
Pavelski shoots right. Strome is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Strome
Home
54.3% (313)
47.5% (535)
Away
53.4% (339)
47.5% (509)
By Period
Pavelski
Strome
P1
51.0%
46.4%
P2
51.9%
48.3%
P3
58.1%
47.9%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2020 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |