Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Lizotte wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.8% vs Carrick 53.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 56.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 63.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 58.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Lizotte
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lizotte
Carrick
Last 5: Lizotte 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lizotte
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (299)
53.8% (654)
-0.3%
Power Play
0.0% (4)
0.0% (2)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (44)
63.9% (36)
-25.3%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lizotte is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Lizotte shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Carrick
Home
52.0% (198)
50.0% (328)
Away
49.7% (149)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Lizotte
Carrick
P1
50.0%
56.7%
P2
50.9%
51.1%
P3
52.2%
54.8%
Final 5 min
60.9%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |