Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Carrick 52.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Lizotte leads 24-6 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 62.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 86.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 72.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Lizotte
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
6
(30 meetings)
24
6
Lizotte
Carrick
Last 10: Lizotte 9-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
7
3
Lizotte
Carrick
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
7
0
Lizotte
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
10
3
Lizotte
Carrick
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
52.1% (2,513)
-0.5%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
61.3% (75)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
50.7% (430)
-8.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lizotte is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,213).
Lizotte shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Carrick
Home
49.5% (1,840)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Lizotte
Carrick
P1
48.0%
51.8%
P2
52.3%
52.2%
P3
50.5%
52.4%
Final 5 min
50.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:32 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:24 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 05:30 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:22 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |