Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.0% vs Carrick 53.7% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 72.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 54.5%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 56.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Cizikas
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cizikas
Carrick
Last 5: Cizikas 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Cizikas
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (512)
54.9% (428)
-1.2%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
66.7% (3)
+33.3%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
50.0% (50)
-2.4%
On power play, Cizikas has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cizikas is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (177).
Cizikas shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Carrick
Home
51.9% (258)
58.2% (225)
Away
54.8% (299)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Cizikas
Carrick
P1
56.0%
55.2%
P2
55.1%
52.8%
P3
50.0%
55.4%
Final 5 min
48.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
52.0%▼
60.5%
53.5%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |