Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Carrick 53.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 83.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 54.0%
Neutral zone
Dowling 60.4%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Dowling
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Dowling
Carrick
Last 9: Dowling 3-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Dowling
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
1
Dowling
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Dowling
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
53.8% (654)
-5.1%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
0.0% (2)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
63.9% (36)
-13.9%
On power play, Dowling has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowling is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Dowling shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Dowling
Carrick
Home
49.0% (145)
50.0% (328)
Away
47.8% (182)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Dowling
Carrick
P1
48.1%
56.7%
P2
49.1%
51.1%
P3
47.8%
54.8%
Final 5 min
51.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:35 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:24 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:43 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |