Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.6% vs 54.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Carrick 53.7% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 51.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 55.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 54.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Stenlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stenlund
Carrick
Last 5: Stenlund 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Stenlund
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Stenlund
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (605)
54.9% (428)
+1.3%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
66.7% (3)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (305)
50.0% (50)
+1.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stenlund is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Stenlund shoots right. Carrick is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carrick
Home
57.0% (446)
58.2% (225)
Away
52.6% (511)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Stenlund
Carrick
P1
55.4%
55.2%
P2
53.2%
52.8%
P3
56.2%
55.4%
Final 5 min
57.2%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
58.0%
54.6%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |