Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Poehling wins 44.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 47.0% vs Carrick 49.5% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 57.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 67.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 55.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Poehling
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Poehling
Carrick
Last 5: Poehling 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Poehling
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
1
Poehling
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (437)
48.9% (352)
-3.8%
Power Play
56.4% (39)
81.3% (16)
-24.9%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
42.2% (45)
+19.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Poehling is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Poehling shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Poehling
Carrick
Home
46.6% (232)
46.9% (192)
Away
46.3% (257)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Poehling
Carrick
P1
43.9%
48.1%
P2
49.1%
50.0%
P3
46.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.1%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
46.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:06 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |