Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.8% vs Novak 43.4% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 63.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 91.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 76.4%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Carrick
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Carrick
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carrick
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (439)
41.4% (379)
+13.7%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
46.9% (32)
+19.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Carrick shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Carrick
Novak
Home
58.2% (225)
42.6% (195)
Away
51.5% (270)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Carrick
Novak
P1
56.7%
42.4%
P2
52.8%
39.2%
P3
54.4%
44.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |