Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.3% vs Gagner 44.6% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 82.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
O'Reilly
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
O'Reilly
Gagner
Last 6: O'Reilly 4-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (392)
42.1% (575)
+11.5%
Power Play
47.2% (36)
55.3% (123)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (28)
34.9% (43)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. O'Reilly is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (142).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gagner is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gagner
Home
54.4% (237)
45.6% (375)
Away
51.1% (219)
42.1% (366)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gagner
P1
50.3%
40.1%
P2
51.4%
42.2%
P3
55.7%
48.2%
OT
71.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
46.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 2 | 14:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |