Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Gagner wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gagner 47.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 76.1%
Defensive zone
Gagner 87.0%
Neutral zone
Gagner 79.7%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Gagner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
7
(7 meetings)
0
7
Gagner
Hertl
Last 7: Gagner 0-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Gagner
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gagner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (158)
51.6% (1,084)
-0.3%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
61.0% (246)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
33.6% (110)
44.1% (136)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Gagner shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Gagner
Hertl
Home
53.2% (154)
55.2% (696)
Away
40.0% (150)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Gagner
Hertl
P1
35.6%
55.4%
P2
52.7%
54.8%
P3
51.9%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
34.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 13:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |