Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lafferty wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 47.6% vs Monahan 51.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 67.3%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 87.1%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 61.4%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Lafferty
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Lafferty
Monahan
Last 9: Lafferty 4-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Lafferty
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
2
Lafferty
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Lafferty
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,413)
51.1% (11,356)
-3.1%
Power Play
45.7% (46)
53.7% (2,580)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (184)
46.0% (766)
-2.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Lafferty shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Monahan
Home
47.3% (833)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
47.5% (810)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Lafferty
Monahan
P1
49.4%
50.9%
P2
43.1%
51.7%
P3
49.8%
51.0%
OT
60.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
45.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 12:57 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 08:23 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |