Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 80.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 93.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Last 7: O'Reilly 6-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Reinhart
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
44.6% (345)
+10.4%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
43.3% (97)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
43.2% (88)
-2.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
O'Reilly shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Home
54.8% (759)
47.9% (267)
Away
53.0% (777)
40.3% (263)
By Period
O'Reilly
Reinhart
P1
55.3%
45.6%
P2
51.9%
42.0%
P3
54.2%
45.4%
OT
64.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |