Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Couturier 53.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 57.9%
Defensive zone
Couturier 50.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 59.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Eller
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Eller
Couturier
Last 5: Eller 4-1 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
1
Eller
Couturier
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
53.4% (758)
+3.1%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
62.9% (70)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
50.7% (227)
+5.8%
On power play, Eller has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Eller
Couturier
Home
53.1% (211)
50.7% (517)
Away
59.7% (278)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Eller
Couturier
P1
55.4%
55.2%
P2
58.1%
53.0%
P3
57.1%
53.3%
Final 5 min
60.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 09:58 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:50 | Offensive | Lars Eller |