Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.1% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 87.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 82.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 52.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kuraly
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
0
Kuraly
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (444)
56.1% (342)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (150)
62.5% (8)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
54.6% (304)
53.4% (208)
Away
45.5% (290)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
55.2%
55.6%
P2
45.7%
52.8%
P3
49.5%
59.1%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |