Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 51.0%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Kuraly wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 21-13 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 79.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 87.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 59.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
21
(34 meetings)
13
21
Kuraly
Stamkos
Last 10: Kuraly 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
12
Kuraly
Stamkos
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
12
4
Kuraly
Stamkos
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
5
Kuraly
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (5,141)
50.4% (9,799)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.0% (100)
55.1% (1,725)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,086)
49.7% (825)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
51.9% (3,187)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
48.7% (3,141)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
51.1%
49.1%
P2
49.9%
52.7%
P3
50.0%
50.9%
OT
52.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |