Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kuraly wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.7% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 85.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 56.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Kuraly
Stamkos
Last 9: Kuraly 4-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Kuraly
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
1
Kuraly
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (901)
55.3% (628)
-6.1%
Power Play
68.2% (22)
55.1% (216)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (219)
40.2% (87)
+9.6%
On power play, Kuraly has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
51.7% (603)
55.5% (499)
Away
47.3% (539)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
50.9%
50.7%
P2
49.5%
53.8%
P3
49.1%
55.9%
OT
25.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
45.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |