Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.1% vs Thompson 45.3% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 83.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 67.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 56.6%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Kuraly
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kuraly
Thompson
Last 5: Kuraly 2-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Kuraly
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kuraly
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (444)
44.9% (642)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (150)
33.3% (33)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Kuraly shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Thompson
Home
54.6% (304)
46.0% (391)
Away
45.5% (290)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Kuraly
Thompson
P1
55.2%
48.1%
P2
45.7%
44.9%
P3
49.5%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |