Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Kuraly wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.3% vs Thompson 42.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 75.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 80.4%
Neutral zone
Thompson 58.1%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Kuraly
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
Kuraly
Thompson
Last 10: Kuraly 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
6
Kuraly
Thompson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
5
3
Kuraly
Thompson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
5
4
Kuraly
Thompson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (5,141)
42.9% (3,521)
+8.6%
Power Play
56.0% (100)
46.8% (372)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,086)
33.6% (265)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Kuraly shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Thompson
Home
51.9% (3,187)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
48.7% (3,141)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Kuraly
Thompson
P1
51.1%
44.5%
P2
49.9%
43.6%
P3
50.0%
40.2%
OT
52.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 05:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 03:41 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:23 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |