Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.1% vs Monahan 49.1% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 59.2%
Defensive zone
Monahan 70.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Tkachuk
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tkachuk
Monahan
Last 7: Tkachuk 5-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tkachuk
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (99)
46.4% (532)
+2.1%
Power Play
46.7% (150)
59.1% (132)
-12.4%
On power play, Monahan has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Tkachuk shoots left. Monahan is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (484).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Monahan
Home
50.7% (136)
49.0% (355)
Away
43.4% (113)
49.0% (339)
By Period
Tkachuk
Monahan
P1
45.9%
49.8%
P2
54.4%
46.6%
P3
42.2%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
47.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 10:12 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 09:27 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |