Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 74.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Evans
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Evans
Monahan
Last 6: Evans 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Evans
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Evans
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
53.2% (820)
+3.0%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
55.3% (159)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
48.4% (95)
+7.0%
On power play, Evans has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Evans
Monahan
Home
55.3% (374)
54.6% (529)
Away
57.1% (317)
51.6% (545)
By Period
Evans
Monahan
P1
58.5%
49.2%
P2
55.7%
55.2%
P3
53.9%
53.5%
OT
66.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
54.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |