Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Jarvis 46.8% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 70.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 88.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 81.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 88.7%
88.7%
11.3%
Monahan
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Monahan
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
0
Monahan
Jarvis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
44.2% (52)
+9.0%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
33.3% (6)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (95)
40.0% (15)
+8.4%
On power play, Monahan has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Monahan shoots left. Jarvis is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Monahan
Jarvis
Home
54.6% (529)
43.6% (39)
Away
51.6% (548)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Monahan
Jarvis
P1
49.0%
37.5%
P2
55.4%
48.3%
P3
53.6%
38.9%
OT
61.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |