Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Jarvis 42.3% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 93.7%
Defensive zone
Monahan 80.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 93.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Monahan
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Monahan
Jarvis
Last 10: Monahan 8-2 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
1
Monahan
Jarvis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
2
Monahan
Jarvis
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,197)
41.4% (343)
+9.7%
Power Play
53.6% (2,558)
43.7% (119)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (733)
38.5% (156)
+7.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,301).
Monahan shoots left. Jarvis is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (508).
Home / Away
Monahan
Jarvis
Home
52.3% (7,234)
43.5% (333)
Away
50.2% (7,254)
38.2% (285)
By Period
Monahan
Jarvis
P1
51.0%
39.5%
P2
51.6%
38.8%
P3
51.1%
46.1%
OT
53.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.2%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
51.3%
Jarvis
38.0%▲
36.5%
41.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |