Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.3% vs Jarvis 42.6% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 93.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 81.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 91.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Monahan
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Monahan
Jarvis
Last 10: Monahan 8-2 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
1
Monahan
Jarvis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
2
Monahan
Jarvis
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,356)
42.0% (352)
+9.1%
Power Play
53.7% (2,580)
43.7% (119)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (766)
38.2% (157)
+7.8%
On power play, Monahan has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Monahan shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Monahan
Jarvis
Home
52.4% (7,358)
43.8% (336)
Away
50.2% (7,344)
38.7% (292)
By Period
Monahan
Jarvis
P1
50.9%
39.7%
P2
51.7%
39.5%
P3
51.0%
46.1%
OT
53.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |