Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 76.5%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 50.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 67.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Monahan
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Monahan
Jarvis
Last 7: Monahan 4-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
1
Monahan
Jarvis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
2
Monahan
Jarvis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
46.2% (171)
+10.9%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
51.9% (54)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
39.4% (127)
+5.2%
On even strength, Monahan has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Monahan shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Monahan
Jarvis
Home
55.3% (644)
46.1% (204)
Away
54.5% (628)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Monahan
Jarvis
P1
53.9%
42.5%
P2
55.3%
42.9%
P3
54.4%
48.7%
Final 5 min
55.9%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |