Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Johnson 45.7% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 57.2%
Defensive zone
Monahan 67.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 68.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Monahan
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Monahan
Johnson
Last 5: Monahan 3-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Johnson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
1
Monahan
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
44.6% (285)
+12.5%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
46.7% (60)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
16.7% (6)
+27.9%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Monahan shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Monahan
Johnson
Home
55.3% (644)
50.8% (179)
Away
54.5% (628)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Monahan
Johnson
P1
53.9%
41.3%
P2
55.3%
41.8%
P3
54.4%
49.6%
OT
76.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2024 | 1 | 17:25 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 18:42 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |