Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 51.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 73.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 57.7%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Monahan
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Monahan
Gourde
Last 6: Monahan 2-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Monahan
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Monahan
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
47.2% (654)
+6.0%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
45.0% (20)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (95)
32.2% (87)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Monahan shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Monahan
Gourde
Home
54.6% (529)
44.1% (322)
Away
51.6% (548)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Monahan
Gourde
P1
49.0%
42.4%
P2
55.4%
49.8%
P3
53.6%
44.3%
OT
61.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |