Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Gourde 49.5% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 52.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 57.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Monahan
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Monahan
Gourde
Last 6: Monahan 4-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
0
Monahan
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Monahan
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (641)
49.1% (731)
+2.4%
Power Play
62.8% (129)
54.3% (81)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
48.2% (85)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Monahan shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Monahan
Gourde
Home
53.9% (362)
50.9% (479)
Away
52.5% (417)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Monahan
Gourde
P1
48.0%
51.2%
P2
57.0%
49.8%
P3
54.1%
47.5%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |