Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Aho 53.8% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 90.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 56.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 68.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Lowry
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Lowry
Aho
Last 8: Lowry 6-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Lowry
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
0
Lowry
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
51.2% (785)
-1.9%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
63.8% (213)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
57.9% (57)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Lowry
Aho
Home
50.2% (671)
54.9% (548)
Away
47.8% (709)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Lowry
Aho
P1
48.4%
52.8%
P2
50.1%
58.9%
P3
47.8%
50.6%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |