Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 33.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.8% vs Aho 50.0% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 78.0%
Defensive zone
Hughes 65.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 72.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hughes
Aho
Last 6: Hughes 1-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Hughes
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Hughes
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (266)
49.9% (851)
-13.1%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
53.5% (144)
-39.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
43.3% (60)
-10.0%
On power play, Aho has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 33.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
35.1% (148)
53.2% (554)
Away
37.4% (131)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
43.0%
49.1%
P2
28.7%
50.8%
P3
35.2%
49.7%
Final 5 min
28.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |