Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (81% H2H, 26 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Aho 51.2% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 34-11 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 90.4%
Defensive zone
Hughes 95.3%
Neutral zone
Hughes 96.3%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 94.8%
94.8%
5.2%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
34
(45 meetings)
11
34
Hughes
Aho
Last 10: Hughes 1-9 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
6
Hughes
Aho
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
7
Hughes
Aho
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
5
21
Hughes
Aho
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
50.1% (6,619)
-14.1%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
58.9% (1,310)
-20.1%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
46.3% (464)
-15.3%
On power play, Aho has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
36.8% (1,670)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
36.9%
51.1%
P2
33.6%
52.0%
P3
38.1%
50.7%
OT
37.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
34.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:35 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:47 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |