Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McBain wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs Aho 51.2% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 91.3%
Defensive zone
McBain 61.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 63.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 80.7%
19.3%
80.7%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McBain
Aho
Last 8: McBain 5-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
48.5% (778)
-3.2%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
63.4% (191)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
50.8% (65)
-13.2%
On power play, Aho has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
45.5% (437)
51.3% (530)
Away
42.4% (403)
51.4% (504)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
43.5%
50.0%
P2
44.0%
51.3%
P3
45.0%
52.1%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |