Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.4%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 50.9% vs Aho 51.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 80.9%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 79.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Lafferty
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lafferty
Aho
Last 9: Lafferty 3-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Lafferty
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
2
0
Lafferty
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Lafferty
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (366)
48.5% (778)
+3.7%
Power Play
60.0% (15)
63.4% (191)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (104)
50.8% (65)
-4.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Lafferty shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Aho
Home
53.1% (258)
51.3% (530)
Away
48.9% (227)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Lafferty
Aho
P1
52.5%
50.0%
P2
49.7%
51.3%
P3
51.3%
52.1%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 03:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 08:56 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |