Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.2% vs Johnson 49.7% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 18-14 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 74.3%
Defensive zone
Johnson 54.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Aho
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
14
(32 meetings)
18
14
Aho
Johnson
Last 10: Aho 8-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
8
3
Aho
Johnson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
7
5
Aho
Johnson
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
3
6
Aho
Johnson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,619)
49.8% (5,396)
+0.3%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
54.6% (885)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (464)
42.3% (707)
+4.0%
On power play, Aho has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Aho shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Aho
Johnson
Home
52.4% (4,308)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
50.1% (4,085)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Aho
Johnson
P1
51.1%
50.1%
P2
52.0%
50.6%
P3
50.7%
48.4%
OT
48.9%
42.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 3 | 02:16 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 02:44 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 2 | 15:20 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:36 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |