Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Aho wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 54.9% vs Seguin 51.8% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 75.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 55.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Aho
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Aho
Seguin
Last 5: Aho 4-1 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
1
Aho
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (870)
54.8% (135)
-0.3%
Power Play
62.4% (266)
58.3% (24)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (62)
26.7% (15)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Aho shoots left. Seguin is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
Aho
Seguin
Home
53.9% (603)
47.4% (95)
Away
56.8% (595)
59.5% (79)
By Period
Aho
Seguin
P1
54.1%
50.8%
P2
55.0%
57.1%
P3
57.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
55.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |