Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Crosby 57.8% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 78.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.7%
Neutral zone
Crosby 54.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Sturm
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Sturm
Crosby
Last 7: Sturm 2-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Sturm
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Sturm
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Sturm
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
57.8% (1,437)
+2.8%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
60.9% (381)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
50.0% (54)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Home / Away
Sturm
Crosby
Home
61.6% (451)
59.2% (985)
Away
58.2% (376)
57.2% (887)
By Period
Sturm
Crosby
P1
55.9%
57.3%
P2
58.9%
59.5%
P3
64.6%
58.5%
OT
70.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:24 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |