Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowling wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 50.0% vs Lorentz 50.9% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 55.6%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 57.7%
Neutral zone
Dowling 53.6%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Dowling
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dowling
Lorentz
Last 7: Dowling 4-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowling
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
3
2
Dowling
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (82)
51.7% (292)
+0.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
40.0% (10)
-40.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
42.9% (7)
-42.9%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Dowling is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Dowling shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Dowling
Lorentz
Home
51.1% (47)
52.3% (155)
Away
48.7% (39)
50.0% (154)
By Period
Dowling
Lorentz
P1
50.0%
59.2%
P2
50.0%
50.9%
P3
50.0%
43.2%
Final 5 min
40.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
50.0%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:54 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 09:33 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |