Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 51.1%). Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 51.4% vs Lorentz 50.9% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 56.9%
Defensive zone
Johansen 53.5%
Neutral zone
Johansen 59.0%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Johansen
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Johansen
Lorentz
Last 9: Johansen 6-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
3
0
Johansen
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Johansen
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johansen
Lorentz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (615)
51.7% (292)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.3% (140)
40.0% (10)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (67)
42.9% (7)
+3.4%
On power play, Johansen has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Johansen is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (630).
Johansen shoots right. Lorentz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Johansen
Lorentz
Home
52.4% (389)
52.3% (155)
Away
50.8% (433)
50.0% (154)
By Period
Johansen
Lorentz
P1
53.4%
59.2%
P2
49.1%
50.9%
P3
51.5%
43.2%
Final 5 min
52.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
51.6%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |