Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lorentz wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lorentz 48.6% vs Seguin 53.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 81.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 79.0%
Neutral zone
Seguin 82.7%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 80.9%
19.1%
80.9%
Lorentz
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Lorentz
Seguin
Last 9: Lorentz 7-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
1
Lorentz
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
3
0
Lorentz
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
1
Lorentz
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lorentz
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,118)
53.7% (8,071)
-4.8%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
55.9% (810)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (86)
49.3% (762)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Lorentz is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (450).
Lorentz shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Lorentz
Seguin
Home
50.8% (606)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
46.2% (624)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Lorentz
Seguin
P1
53.0%
52.8%
P2
46.8%
53.3%
P3
46.1%
54.7%
OT
0.0%
54.7%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 12:18 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |