Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.0% vs Stamkos 50.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 75.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 68.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 67.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Stepan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Stepan
Stamkos
Last 5: Stepan 5-0 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (889)
49.9% (771)
-3.3%
Power Play
46.9% (113)
55.4% (74)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
45.1% (82)
+2.4%
On power play, Stamkos has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stepan is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Stepan shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stamkos
Home
47.7% (555)
50.7% (487)
Away
45.6% (548)
49.1% (440)
By Period
Stepan
Stamkos
P1
46.4%
46.1%
P2
45.7%
52.0%
P3
48.5%
51.1%
OT
35.3%
54.5%
Final 5 min
46.5%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2015 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 1 | 01:53 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 14:45 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |