Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 52.4% vs Stamkos 49.8% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 71.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 70.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 68.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Carter
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Carter
Stamkos
Last 10: Carter 1-9 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
5
Carter
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Carter
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (934)
48.7% (831)
+2.8%
Power Play
58.5% (164)
53.5% (86)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (95)
69.2% (26)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Carter is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Carter shoots right. Stamkos is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Carter
Stamkos
Home
55.1% (554)
52.5% (474)
Away
50.4% (639)
46.9% (469)
By Period
Carter
Stamkos
P1
50.8%
46.3%
P2
52.1%
52.0%
P3
54.8%
51.2%
OT
50.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
51.7%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
52.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2015 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 00:58 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |