Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 53.1%). Look for Skinner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Skinner wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 51.6% vs Stamkos 52.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 88.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 91.0%
Neutral zone
Skinner 50.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Skinner
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Skinner
Stamkos
Last 8: Skinner 4-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
4
0
Skinner
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Skinner
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (200)
52.9% (735)
-5.4%
Power Play
62.0% (100)
53.4% (73)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
53.8% (145)
-53.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +53.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Skinner is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Skinner shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (686).
Home / Away
Skinner
Stamkos
Home
58.9% (158)
54.1% (481)
Away
44.8% (143)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Skinner
Stamkos
P1
49.0%
50.2%
P2
47.4%
53.4%
P3
59.6%
55.8%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 06:55 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 04:55 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |