Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.2% vs Stamkos 50.0% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 71.1%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 71.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 68.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 9: O'Reilly 3-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
4
O'Reilly
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (1,203)
49.9% (771)
+7.0%
Power Play
60.2% (329)
55.4% (74)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (280)
45.1% (82)
+5.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (653).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
58.6% (879)
50.7% (487)
Away
54.6% (933)
49.1% (440)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
55.6%
46.1%
P2
57.9%
52.0%
P3
55.7%
51.1%
OT
62.5%
54.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 19:09 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |