Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 61.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.2% vs Stamkos 53.8% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 74.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 6: O'Reilly 5-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (1,073)
54.1% (460)
+3.2%
Power Play
58.5% (258)
64.2% (106)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (225)
45.3% (106)
+5.4%
On power play, Stamkos has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (594).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
59.2% (765)
58.2% (328)
Away
54.0% (791)
50.6% (344)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
55.6%
57.5%
P2
61.0%
53.1%
P3
52.3%
52.7%
OT
61.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.6%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 08:22 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |