Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 78.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 75.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 77.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 76.2%
23.8%
76.2%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 6: O'Reilly 1-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
O'Reilly
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
49.3% (789)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
56.9% (181)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
54.1% (98)
-0.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
54.9% (801)
52.0% (512)
Away
58.7% (784)
50.2% (556)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
58.0%
42.1%
P2
56.7%
56.4%
P3
55.4%
53.7%
OT
64.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 07:03 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |