Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
6
O'Reilly
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
55.9% (499)
-0.9%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
56.3% (126)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
58.3% (12)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
54.8% (759)
55.3% (349)
Away
53.0% (777)
56.9% (288)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
55.3%
57.0%
P2
51.9%
59.2%
P3
54.2%
51.5%
OT
64.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |