Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.0% vs Stamkos 53.8% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 64.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 80.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 58.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kuraly
Stamkos
Last 8: Kuraly 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Kuraly
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
1
Kuraly
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Kuraly
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (416)
54.1% (460)
-1.7%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
64.2% (106)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (97)
45.3% (106)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
52.1% (259)
58.2% (328)
Away
45.4% (262)
50.6% (344)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
46.8%
57.5%
P2
52.4%
53.1%
P3
47.2%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.0%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 02:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 04:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 16:09 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |